Personalized Election Modeler

by Matthew Gray

Now and on election night, I want to know given my assumptions, who is going to win and with what odds. This time around, Obama seems pretty likely to win, but what if he loses a key state on the east coast? What if my personal assumptions about some other states don't line up with the general punditry? Well, this tool lets you enter your own probabilities, it runs a trivial monte carlo model (if you want something more involved, try fivethirtyeight.com), and gives you a result. Enjoy.

The numbers in the form below represent the percent chance that you believe Obama will win that state. It doesn't handle the cases where states can grant some EV to one candidate and some to another (NE, ME). I've pre-seeded the values with ballpark estimates that seem reasonable to me. If you just want to see a tracker that uses the intrade.com odds, check out Randall Munroe's predictor at xkcd.